Trevor Lawrence Expectations: A Shift from Luck, Elway to a Different No. 1 Pick

by Ryan Mercier

After a decade of futility, and one year of bliss (2017), the Jacksonville Jaguars are experiencing perhaps their most frustrating season in franchise history. In the five losses this season, Jacksonville held a lead in the fourth quarter in three of those games and were tied in the final period in another. The other loss came after leading 14-0 against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles.

As E.T. once said, “Ouch.” To add to the frustration, in the Jaguars two wins they outscored their opponents 62-10. Is there a magical glowing finger in the Jaguars future to wipe their hurt away? A field-tilting quarterback would certainly be the difference.

Trevor Lawrence was not only the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, he was said to be a generational quarterback. The best prospect since Andrew Luck. Instead, he’s been fine. Just fine.

Check out his traditional stats this season: about 200 yards per game, a 65.5% completion percentage, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions. Fine.

His play during the games? Fine. Some wow throws (like the 3rd & 8 pickup to Zay Jones today), some nice runs, a few head-scratching decisions, and a whole mess of high balls.

Instead of comparing him to Peyton Manning and John Elway, Jags fans may want to look toward another No. 1 overall pick. Alex Smith.

Smith inexplicably was given a seventh season to be the San Francisco 49ers starting QB before achieving meaningful success. This isn’t to say Lawrence’s ceiling is to be a fairly mundane, safe football player. He could eventually reach higher ground and hopefully in much sooner fashion than seven years.

This is to say Step 1 may be rising to the level of a former top pick like Smith before hoping for Elway.