by Ryan Mercier
People who cover the pro football landscape love to crown the Divisional Round or maybe Championship Sunday as the best weekends of the NFL. “Wildcard Weekend is the best, oh no actually the Divisional matchups are great because X.” Nonsense. The Super Bowl is, and always will be, the best football weekend of the year. This is what it’s all about. Chiefs. Eagles. Let’s go.
Game Pick: Chiefs 29, Eagles 27
Getting the big one out of the way, Kansas City will reign victorious on Sunday.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the rightful champions of the NFC and have mostly steamrolled their competition along the way. They have the edge on the offensive and defensive lines, a massive advantage in “Our League.” Perhaps, though, these edges are best over a long season rather than in one winner-take-all contest.
Simply put, the Chiefs have the edge at quarterback and head coach. Yes, Jalen Hurts had a tremendous season and was the MVP runner-up. However, even if the Eagles win this game, no one would say Hurts is superior to Patrick Mahomes. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has also been tremendous since taking over in Philly but Andy Reid is a future Hall of Famer. These edges are on the slighter side but at the most crucial spots possible, especially in a one game sample.
This is why a 2-point victory is the prediction. These are two great teams facing each other.
Prop Bets!
Some might say a struggling actor should not use his income on betting who might score the first touchdown of the Super Bowl. To those people I say, hire me.
I have one absolute favorite prop to bet on every Super Bowl. It’s a creative one because it is an over/under without counting stats.
Jersey # of 1st TD Scorer ov/un 11.5 – The pick: OVER 11.5
Now, with the NFL annoyingly loosening their jersey number rules this prop has really taken on a new look. Numbers for this prop used to almost always be set in the 20s dedicated to a running back. Part of the old strategy on taking the over some years was the benefit of having almost every defensive player in the game, along with many wide receivers and tight ends.
This year, #11 is worn by both A.J. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (more on him later). The under would also give the options of Hurts, Devonta Smith, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, among others. Clearly, the over is a little risky but it gets EVEN odds as opposed to the juice on the under.
Mahomes, Miles Sanders, Kadarius Toney, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Gainwell, Skyy Moore, and many defensive players are all on your side on the over. The biggest fish, though, is #87 Travis Kelce.
Marquez Valdes Scantling ov/un 36.5 yards receiving – The pick: OVER 36.5
Forget the stats, although MVS did catch six balls for 116 yards in the AFC Championship game. The former Green Bay Packer just feels like he has the full trust of Mahomes and will deliver. With an unsteady group of receivers with injury issues, MVS feels second in line for targets behind Kelce.
Seconds of shortest scoring drive ov/un 52.5 – The pick: UNDER 52.5
This is mostly a fun one to root for, yet also completely possible. This bet hits with one huge play early in a drive for a TD. It also hits if, say, the Chiefs get the ball with 45 seconds left in the first half and get a quick-strike field goal at the buzzer.
Players with rush attempt on the Eagles ov/un 4.5 – The pick: OVER 4.5
Hurts, Sanders, and Gainwell are virtually all locks to get a carry. Boston Scott is also very likely to get at least one carry. All that’s needed is a run play with A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith and this is the Super Bowl, Philly will pull out all the stops.
Bonus possibility is Gardner Minshew taking a snap in victory formation in an Eagles blowout.
Isiah Pacheco yards of longest rush ov/un 13.5 – The pick: OVER 13.5
If the Eagles defense has a weakness, it’s in the running game. Bettors could pound the over for total Chiefs rushing yards of Pacheco total rushing yards. However, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are going to want to throw the football. It’s in their DNA. Get one gain of 14 yards or more from the rookie and it’s cashed.
Longshot City!
Will Jaylen Watson have an INT yes/no – The pick: YES (6/1 odds)
Super Bowl MVP Jaylen Watson (200/1)
Super Bowl MVP Fletcher Cox (200/1)
Fletcher Cox is an all-time great player and quite simply, has the best chance at achieving this award with the absolute craziest odds on the Eagles. Beyond a longshot, but fun.
Watson has had a nice rookie season and has come up with interception in both Chief playoff games this postseason. Can he do it again?
Struggling Actor Sports 